Pike forecasts the future of Li-ion batteries

  • 25-Jun-2010 03:09 EDT

Pike Research anticipates that improved manufacturing efficiencies and expanded access to lithium will halve the installed cost of lithium-ion vehicle batteries between 2010 and 2015 to $470/kW·h. The Li-ion transportation battery industry will grow more than eight-fold in the next five years, the cleantech market intelligence firm forecasts, with nearly $8 billion in sales worldwide by 2015, up from $878 million in 2010. Total electrified vehicle sales in the Asia Pacific region will reach almost 1.1 million in 2015, more than in the U.S. and Western Europe combined. And the Asian Li-ion battery market will surpass $4 billion, representing 53% of total worldwide sales, in the same timeframe. Vehicles powered at least part-time by battery power only will make up less than 2.5% of the world's fleet in 2015. The firm also forecasts rapid advances in advanced battery technology in the next five years as automakers in the near future launch full and partial electric vehicles. Asian manufacturers, which have traditionally dominated the global market for Li-ion batteries in various electronics categories, will continue to lead in both Li-ion production and consumption as the global market for electrified vehicles grows rapidly over the next several years. U.S. battery companies have struggled to gain market share. “The Obama administration is making a concerted effort to prevent the failure of the U.S. auto industry, and that will bolster development of the U.S. battery industry through 2012,” said Pike Senior Analyst John Gartner. “But political shifts and market realities could remove that safety net.”

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